Tracing the Evolution of COVID-19 and the Role of AI in Combating Emerging Variants: From Outbreak to Innovation

Abimbola Adeponle*

Department of Computer Science (AI-focused), Liverpool John Moores University, England, UK

*Corresponding author

*Abimbola Adeponle, Department of Computer Science (AI-focused), Liverpool John Moores University, England, UK

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, triggered by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has transformed healthcare, scientific inquiry, and international collaboration. AI has revolutionized pandemic response, expediting vaccine development, predicting variants, and improving diagnostic precision. International organizations like the World Health Organization, ECDC, GAVI, and the United Nations have played crucial roles in response. The integration of AI and institutional partnership signifies a shift from reactive crisis response to proactive preparedness. This shift has established sustainable frameworks for managing future infectious disease threats, transforming the pandemic experience into an opportunity for innovative solutions in global health security.

 

NB.1.8.1 is a subvariant of Omicron (JN.1-lineage). It is a recombinant virus formed through genetic recombination, resulting from multiple Omicron variants infecting the same cell and exchanging genetic material. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The variant "Nimbus" is an informal designation assigned by researchers and citizen scientists, who have previously assigned names such as Kraken, Centaurus, and Eris to significant COVID variants.

Keywords: COVID-19 variants, Artificial intelligence, Omicron, Global health organizations, NB.1.8.1.

Review Article

  1. The Worldwide Progression of COVID-19: A Historical Synopsis

In late 2019, the globe saw a significant transformation due to the appearance of COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by the unique SARS-CoV-2 virus. A cluster of unexplained pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, swiftly transformed into a major global public health crisis in contemporary history.

  1. 2019: The Inception in Wuhan

The initial documented cases were reported in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province. On December 31, 2019, China notified the World Health Organization (WHO) on many instances of an enigmatic pneumonia. Most initial cases were associated with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, a substantial live animal and seafood market in the city. Shortly thereafter, Chinese authorities found a novel coronavirus, initially designated as “2019-nCoV.” On January 11, 2020, China announced its inaugural death—a 61-year-old male from Wuhan. By mid-January, instances have been identified beyond China, specifically in Bangkok, Tokyo, and Seoul.

  1. 2020: Worldwide Dissemination and Proclamation of a Pandemic

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization classified the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The initial significant epidemic beyond China was documented in Lombardy, Italy, in late February, subsequently followed by swift dissemination to Spain, Iran, and South Korea.

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization o icially designated COVID-19 as a global pandemic. At that point, the virus had disseminated to more than 100 nations. Lockdowns were enacted in prominent cities, such as New York City, London, Paris, and Madrid.

The original strain, subsequently designated as the Wuhan strain, inundated global health systems. Hospitals encountered deficits in ventilators and personal protective equipment. International travel declined significantly, businesses shrunk, and daily living saw substantial transformation.

  1. 2021: Variants and Vaccinations

The globe entered 2021 with measured optimism. In December 2020, widespread immunizations commenced utilizing vaccines formulated by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca). Nonetheless, novel mutations complicated the reaction. In late 2020, the Alpha variety (B.1.1.7) was identified in Kent, United Kingdom, and rapidly disseminated globally. This mutant exhibited more transmissibility than the original strain. Simultaneously, the Beta variety surfaced in South Africa, while the Gamma form was initially identified in Manaus, Brazil.

By mid-2021, numerous nations were relaxing restrictions due to rising immunization rates. In May 2021, the Delta variety (B.1.617.2), initially detected in Maharashtra, India, caused another global surge. The Delta variant demonstrated heightened transmissibility, resulting in significant increases in urban areas such Delhi, Jakarta, and Sydney.

  1. 2022: Omicron and Emerging Challenges

In November 2021, researchers in Gauteng, South Africa, identified a novel variety- the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). Omicron disseminated worldwide within weeks, resulting in unprecedented case numbers in early 2022. The subvariants, such as BA.1 and BA.5, resulted in infections among vaccinated persons, however hospitalization and mortality rates were diminished relative to Delta.

Metropolises like New York City, London, and Shanghai witnessed significant surges. Shanghai,    specifically,    had    stringent   lockdowns    in    March                        and                     April 2022. Vaccination tactics modified, include booster doses to enhance immunity. Pharmaceutical companies commenced development of variant-specific vaccinations and antiviral therapies, including Paxlovid.

  1. 2023: Shifting to Endemic Status

By 2023, numerous nations were transitioning their plans from emergency response to sustainable management. On May 5, 2023, the WHO announced that COVID-19 no longer represented a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Daily life recommenced in numerous cities, despite the ongoing circulation of the virus.

Subvariants such as XBB.1.5, colloquially referred to as “Kraken,” have arisen, resulting in regional increases in locations including New Delhi, Los Angeles, and Berlin. Vaccination initiatives persisted with revised booster dosages.

  1. 2024–2025: Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment

In 2024 and extending into 2025, global health organizations underscored the necessity of ongoing surveillance. Emerging strains like KP.2 and JN.1 led to isolated surges in cases; nonetheless, extensive vaccination and natural immunity mitigated severe illness incidence relative to previous years.

Countries enhanced their pandemic readiness. Cities such as Singapore and Seoul exemplified the integration of fast testing, digital contact tracing, and adaptable public health strategies. Simultaneously, researchers examined the prolonged consequences of Long COVID, which persists in impacting millions worldwide.

  1. Perpetual Influence

The COVID-19 epidemic fundamentally transformed the world. It expedited digital transition, disrupted economies, and revealed vulnerabilities in healthcare systems. Education transitioned to online platforms in numerous areas during 2020–2021. Significant occurrences, such as the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics, were either deferred or conducted under constraints.

Furthermore, the epidemic underscored the significance of scientific collaboration. The deadlines for vaccine development were reduced from years to months. The international society observed unparalleled endeavors by researchers, governments, and citizens.

  1. Anticipating the Future

As of October 2025, COVID-19 persists in daily life but is controlled similarly to influenza. Annual booster programs are prevalent in urban centers including Toronto, Paris, and Sydney. Surveillance networks monitor developing variants in real time, facilitating swift responses to possible threats.

Although the most severe waves have passed, the recollection of the pandemic persists vividly. The insights gained from this disaster persist in shaping global health policy, pandemic readiness, and community resilience.

The top red SARS-CoV-2 virus was first found in Wuhan in 2019.

  1. Major Issues deviating from the original:

Alpha (B.1.1.7)—UK, late 2020

Beta (B.1.351)—South Africa, 2020

Gamma (P.1)—Brazil, 2020

Delta (B.1.617.2)—India, late 2020

Omicron—South Africa, 2021

Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) Asia - 2025

 

Omicron Subvariants at the bottom indicate how this variant created sub lineages like BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5, which have evolved. Small dots on the original virus represent spike proteins, which mutate in each version. Mutations in each new variety altered transmissibility, severity, and vaccination or infection resistance.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the generation of novel SARS-CoV-2 mutations has been a significant concern. Variants emerge through mutation, recombination, and selective pressures (e.g., from immunological responses or treatments). The variant NB.1.8.1, sometimes referred to as “Nimbus,” is a recently found lineage currently under surveillance by the World Health Organization (WHO).

  • Genetic Characteristics

11.1 Lineage and Mutational Profile:

NB.1.8.1 originates from the JN.1 lineage, which is part of the larger Omicron-derived clade family.

World Health Organization

It possesses a succession of spike-protein mutations, including T22N, F59S, G184S, A435S, F456L, T478I, and Q493E.

These influence regions pertinent to receptor binding (ACE2), antibody recognition, or potentially both.

11.2 Immune Evasion

Numerous alterations are recognized or hypothesized from previous studies that diminish neutralization by antibodies generated from preceding illness or immunization. For instance, the Q493E mutation has been linked to the evasion of antibody binding. World Health Organization

11.3 Epidemiology and Dissemination

Geographical Distribution: NB.1.8.1 has been recorded in several regions of Asia, including China and Southeast Asia, as well as in certain areas of Europe, North America (via travel and airport screening), and more places.

11.4 Prevalence

By mid-2025, NB.1.8.1 constituted approximately 10–11% of sequenced global samples in certain datasets.

Associated Press News. It has been identified as an emerging variety, although it has not yet become predominant in most regions.

11.5 Designation & Monitoring:

The WHO categorizes NB.1.8.1 as a Variant Under Monitoring (VUM), indicating it is being observed for possible risk; however, current assessments indicate its worldwide risk is low.

  • Clinical Features and Severity of Disease

Symptomatology: NB.1.8.1 is linked to a painful throat characterized colloquially as feeling like to “razor blades,” accompanied by typical influenza-like symptoms: nasal congestion, lethargy, slight cough, fever, and myalgia. Certain reports additionally document gastrointestinal symptoms (e.g., diarrhoea, nausea) in a limited number of instances.

12.1 Severity:

Currently, there is little evidence to suggest that NB.1.8.1 results in more severe disease compared to other circulating variants. Hospitalization and mortality rates do not seem to be increased compared to other Omicron sub lineages, while the evidence is still limited.

12.2 Consequences for Immunity and Vaccination

Vaccine Efficacy: Present vaccines are considered to retain e ectiveness against severe illness induced by NB.1.8.1.

There is apprehension regarding "immune evasion," namely because NB.1.8.1 may partially circumvent neutralizing antibodies generated from previous infection or immunization, especially in cases of mild or moderate sickness.

12.3 Reinfection danger: Due to immune evasion mutations and increasing incidence, the danger of reinfection is concerning, particularly in populations where prior immunity may have diminished or booster coverage is inadequate. Data continue to emerge.

  • Public Health Response and Risk Assessment

Genomic surveillance is essential for identifying variations in travellers and employing sequencing to monitor prevalence. NB.1.8.1 has already been identified through airport screening in several U.S. states.

13.1 Preventive Measures: Standard public health protocols are essential: immunization and boosters, masking in high-risk or crowded environments, adequate ventilation, and timely testing and isolation when symptomatic.

13.2 Risk Level: According to the World Health Organization's current evaluation, the worldwide risk associated with NB.1.8.1 is low. Nonetheless, its capacity for transmission and partly immune evasion necessitates ongoing surveillance.

13.3 Discourse and Prospective Trajectories: From an academic standpoint, NB.1.8.1 o ers a chance to examine the processes of vaccine evasion and antigenic drift in SARS-CoV-2. Principal domains for additional investigation encompass:

13.4 Neutralization studies: Laboratory assays to evaluate the e icacy of sera from vaccinated, boosted, and previously infected persons in neutralizing NB.1.8.1. Monitoring clinical outcomes: Extensive cohort studies to determine whether illness severity (hospitalization, long COVID risk) significantly di ers from other variants. Implications of vaccine updates: The necessity of include NB.1.8.1-specific antigens or mutations in future vaccination formulations. Investigations into the evolutionary origins focus on the functions of persistent infection, recombination, and animal reservoirs in shaping its mutational makeup.

NB.1.8.1 (“Nimbus”) also known as stratus is a newly identified SARS-CoV-2 variant now under global observation. The mutation profile encompasses alterations that may affect immune recognition, its incidence is increasing in many places, and it produces symptoms generally akin to other Omicron sublineages, albeit with certain distinguishing characteristics (e.g., pronounced sore throat). Although present research indicates no escalation in severity, its capacity for immune evasion highlights the necessity for attention. Ongoing genetic surveillance, immunological research, and potential modifications to vaccination strategies will be pivotal in addressing its public health implications.

  1. AI vs. COVID-19

14.1 The Future of Digital defence Against Existing and Emerging Virus

Artificial intelligence (AI) can significantly contribute to the eradication of COVID-19 and the prevention of future variations. Although immunizations, public health initiatives, and medical therapies are crucial, AI enhances the global response through increased speed, accuracy, and predictive capabilities. This is an explanation of the process, presented in an accessible yet technically knowledgeable manner.

AI has the potential to address the emerging COVID-19 variant (Nimbus) through the facilitation of swift detection, Modeling, and therapeutic development. According to Garcia-Junior et al. (2025), AI-powered biosensors are capable of efficiently detecting viral biomarkers in saliva. Gawande et al. (2025) emphasize the role of AI in forecasting outbreaks and expediting vaccine development, whereas Gupta et al. (2025) underscore the diagnostic capabilities of meta-learning.

14.2 Proactive identification and epidemic forecasting

A significant use of AI is the early identification of outbreaks prior to widespread dissemination. Through the analysis of extensive real-time data, including hospital records, social media activity, flight patterns, and wastewater surveillance, AI models can identify atypical clusters of illnesses or diseases more rapidly than human capabilities alone.

Advanced machine learning algorithms can identify anomalous surges in respiratory illnesses within a designated area, enabling health officials to intervene prior to the escalation of an outbreak. AI algorithms can predict the potential spread of the virus by analyzing travel patterns, climatic conditions, and population density, so facilitating more effective containment methods.

14.3 Monitoring mutations and variations

Genomic sequencing is an essential instrument for identifying novel variations of the virus. The global production of sequencing data is vast, comprising millions of sequences. AI can e iciently assess these data at scale, swiftly detecting alterations that may enhance the virus's infectiousness or confer resistance to vaccines.

 

AI models can simulate the effects of mutations on the structure of viral proteins, such as the spike protein, enabling scientists to comprehend the potential impact of a new variety within hours or days instead of weeks.

14.4 Expediting vaccine and pharmaceutical development

The conventional process of vaccine development may need several years. AI significantly reduces this period by examining protein structures, forecasting viral evolution, and identifying the most viable vaccine targets.

AI-driven techniques can model the response of a new variation to current vaccinations or propose molecular modifications to enhance protection. Likewise, AI can evaluate millions of chemical compounds to identify possible antiviral medications significantly more rapidly than laboratory testing alone. This velocity is crucial for outpacing the virus-developing "variant-proof" or swiftly updatable vaccinations.

14.5 Enhancing public health interventions

Artificial intelligence can assist governments and health organizations in determining the optimal timing and locations for deploying resources such as diagnostics, vaccination, and therapies. By integrating illness data, demographic information, and travel trends, AI can forecast regions most susceptible to a rise. This facilitates targeted interventions instead of widespread lockdowns, hence reducing health detriment and economic disturbance.

14.6 Customized medicine and surveillance

Artificial intelligence can assist physicians in delivering enhanced patient care. Algorithms can evaluate patient records to identify individuals at increased risk of serious illness, facilitating early intervention. AI-powered wearable devices can identify early indicators of infection prior to the onset of symptoms, facilitating quicker case isolation.

14.7 Mitigating future pandemics

Ultimately, the identical AI systems employed in the fight against COVID can also surveil for other infections. Establishing worldwide surveillance networks with AI enables humanity to identify and mitigate emerging viruses prior to their escalation into pandemics.

In summary, AI does not supplant doctors, scientists, or public health initiatives; rather, it enhances their efficiency. By detecting outbreaks promptly, monitoring variants swiftly, accelerating vaccine development, and directing effective interventions, AI can assist in eliminating COVID and preventing the proliferation of hazardous new variants. It serves not merely as a tool for the current pandemic, but as a safeguard against future ones.

  1. Global Collaboration and Multilateral Initiatives in Virus Elimination

Global health crises necessitate coordinated international response. The current viral pandemic has demonstrated the world's interconnectedness, rendering the participation of influential nations and international organizations not merely beneficial but imperative. Global powers, multilateral organizations, and international institutions have intensified efforts to support, resources, and strategic leadership in eliminating the virus and averting future pandemics.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is a pivotal entity in global health coordination. The World Health Organization (WHO) has led in providing guidelines, monitoring the virus's dissemination, and coordinating responses among member states. It has also enabled international research collaborations to guarantee the equitable development and distribution of e ective vaccinations, treatments, and diagnostics. The early warning systems and public health advisories have enabled nations to plan for and respond to the epidemic with greater efficacy. The W.H.O. has collaborated with several organizations to initiate programs to enhance healthcare systems in at-risk areas.

The United Nations (UN) has been instrumental in galvanizing political will and guaranteeing that humanitarian assistance reaches impacted regions. The United Nations, through agencies such as the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), has facilitated community-based healthcare initiatives, enhanced testing and vaccination efforts, and supplied medical resources to low- and middle-income nations. This collaborative strategy guarantees that no region is neglected, particularly those with vulnerable health systems.

The United States has utilized its scientific, technological, and financial resources to aid global eradication initiatives. The U.S. government, via agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), has financed vaccine research, facilitated local healthcare worker training, and dispatched experts to aid in outbreak response and surveillance. The United States has also provided billions of dollars in assistance to bolster global immunization initiatives and disaster relief efforts.

The United Kingdom (UK) has demonstrated leadership in both research and assistance. The UK government has endorsed global vaccine programs, including funding mechanisms that guarantee access to life-saving vaccines for lower-income countries. British research institutions have engaged in international collaboration to create innovative diagnostic tools and therapies. The UK, via its international aid division, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development O ice (FCDO), has provided financial and logistical support to impacted countries.

The People's Republic of China (P.R.C.) has significantly contributed by increasing the manufacture and distribution of personal protective equipment, test kits, and vaccines. At the onset of the epidemic, China disseminated the virus's genomic material globally, facilitating the expedited development of vaccinations and therapies by researchers. The People's Republic of China has dispatched medical teams to other countries and ordered direct bilateral help to nations in need, especially in Asia and Africa.

The European Union (EU) has been a significant influence in the worldwide response. The EU has utilized its pooled finances and political clout to organize vaccine procurement and distribution via programs like the COVAX facility. The EU's assistance has been important in guaranteeing that low-income countries obtain fair vaccine distributions. Moreover, the EU has allocated resources towards research and manufacturing capabilities to enhance global vaccination availability.

The World Bank (WB) is another significant entity that has o ered financial assistance to enhance healthcare systems and facilitate successful responses to the outbreak. The World Bank has facilitated the acquisition of vaccinations, enhancement of medical infrastructure, and establishment of more robust health systems in developing countries through the provision of low-interest loans and grants. Its economic aid is essential for nations whose resources have been significantly depleted by the pandemic.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has intervened to stabilize economies a ected by the virus. Through the provision of emergency financial packages, debt relief, and technical assistance, the IMF guarantees that nations can sustain funding for their health sectors while maintaining economic stability. This financial assistance is essential as public health emergencies frequently induce significant economic disruptions.

The Gavi, the vaccination Alliance (Gavi - G.A.V.I.), has furthered global collaboration by emphasizing vaccination equity. Gavi collaborates with WHO, UNICEF, and global governments to guarantee that vaccines are delivered to populations in isolated and underserved areas. Its function in procurement and delivery has been important in rapidly and electively enhancing vaccination initiatives.

Moreover, the Group of Seven (G7) and Group of Twenty (G20), comprising prominent global countries, have convened high-level meetings to synchronize financial assistance, exchange scientific advancements, and formulate international agreements for vaccine distribution. These venues facilitate the alignment, transparency, and efficacy of the global response.

Philanthropic foundations and the private sector have also engaged in the struggle. Entities like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) have allocated billions of dollars to facilitate vaccination research, enhance testing capabilities, and optimize distribution logistics. Their donations enhance governmental and global initiatives, addressing financial deficiencies and expediting innovation [1-27].

Figure 1

Conclusion

In conclusion, eliminating a virus of global significance necessitates collaborative efforts that surpass national boundaries. Organizations such as the W.H.O., U.N., W.B., I.M.F., and G.A.V.I., in conjunction with influential nations including the U.S., U.K., P.R.C., and E.U., have illustrated that global solidarity is both feasible and imperative. Their financial assistance, technological advancements, political partnerships, and dedication to equitable health access are facilitating a future devoid of the virus. This cooperative paradigm establishes a benchmark for how the global community might address future pandemics with greater efficiency and compassion.

Acknowledgment

I wish to sincerely acknowledge those individuals whose e orts have established the foundation for my research. The intellectual contributions and insights of both historical and contemporary thinkers have significantly influenced my comprehension, and I am grateful for their pioneering efforts. I sincerely thank my family for their steadfast tolerance and support throughout the drafting process. Their support, forbearance, and understanding have been vital, allowing me to remain focused and resolute.

Declaration of Conflict of Interest

The author of this document confirms that there are no conflicts of interest related to the development or submission of this work. The content has been exclusively created by the author, free from any undue influence or external interests that could compromise the integrity or objectivity of the information. All sources and references utilized in the development of this material have been properly acknowledged and cited, ensuring that appropriate credit is attributed to the original authors and their contributions. The author asserts that this work is an original creation and that no illations, financial interests, or personal connections have influenced the research, writing, or conclusions presented herein. The author hereby undertakes complete responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided and the integrity of the submitted work.

Ethical Approval: Not reported

Guarantor: None

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